So Rasmussen has released a couple of polls on the MN-Sen race and VA-Sen race.
In the MN-Sen race Ciresi and Franken poll basically the same with both holding Coleman at 46 and Ciresi getting 42% while Franken gets 41. The only real difference is that opinions on Ciresi are significantly less firm.
In VA, the polls show Mark Warner with a huge lead over both of his potential rivals, leading Gilmore 54-34 and Davis 57-30
I think Davis’ numbers undercut our resident conservatives’ view. His entire view is that Davis can win because he will cut into support in NoVa. I could be wrong on this, but those people are the ones who should know who Davis is and they should already have their minds made up on him. If they do have their mind up, that’s very bad for Davis.
Warner is expected to announce his decision on Thursday. If he decides to run I wouldn’t be surprised one-bit if Davis chooses not to run against him
Unfortunately, that’s not by “entire” view. That’s only one part of it.
There are four items that contributed to Mark Warner’s success in 2001:
1) He was running against a flawed candidate after the disastrous term of Jim Gilmore
2) He outspent his opponent 2-1
3) He kept a base of support in Northern Virginia
4) He made significant in-roads into Southwestern Virginia.
My “entire view” is that none of those advantages will present themselves for Warner in a race against Davis.
And may I also add that this poll is remarkably similar to the lead that George Allen had over Jim Webb in February 2006.
What makes you think that the poll shows that those in NoVa don’t like him?
probably not, because he wasn’t as well known. he had one senate race five years before, that was it. furthermore, he had never governed or legislated before. you’re quite right in saying he probably won’t have those four advantages this time around. he will however, be more popular now that the state has seen him in action, as governor, something he lacked in 01. while i doubt that blunts all four of the advantages he’s at least partially losing, it does put him in a better position now, than in 01.